Project
Gambling Addy
Gambling Addy is a web app at gamblingaddy.com where bettors can upload NBA parlay screenshots and get true odds instead of payout totals, making the math explicit so they can see how unlikely their parlay is to hit.
Specs
- Hardware: 1 GB RAM | 1 Shared vCPU | 150 GB bandwidth
- Tech Stack: OpenAI API | PostgreSQL | Python Flask
- Hosting: Digital Ocean App | Cloudflare
Screenshot
Notes on the math
- Weighted recency: Recent games count more (exponential decay, λ=0.92). Game 1 = 100%, Game 10 ≈ 43%, Game 20 ≈ 19%.
- Empirical probability: Weighted hit rate with Laplace-style smoothing adapted for weights.
- Distribution model: Normal CDF using weighted mean/stdev to estimate P(over/under the line). Includes continuity correction (±0.5) and stdev floor to prevent extreme probabilities.
- Blended estimate: 60% empirical + 40% distribution-based.
- Caps: Per-leg probabilities clamped to 20–80% to stay conservative.
- Confidence: High (≥20 games), Medium (10–19), Low (5–9), Very Low (<5, excluded from parlay math).
- Independence: Independence assumed when multiplying leg probabilities for the parlay estimate.
Results screenshot
